Mali Crisis, al-Qaeda driving ‘Arc of Instability’ across Africa, new studies warn

NATO CFC, CNA Strategic Studies ‒ Mali crisis and Libya arms influx feeding a Jihadist network from Asia to N. Africa, al-Qaeda’s new center of gravity, creating an ‘Arc of Instability’ across the region. Also evidence AQIM has infiltrated Polisario-run camps in Tindouf, Algeria and Sahrawis from camps are joining terrorists in Mali.

Al-Qaeda and Africa’s ‘Arc of Instability’ Crisis in Mali and arms from Libya are feeding a Jihadist network stretching across N. Africa, al-Qaeda’s new center of gravity. Studies cite evidence AQIM is recruiting jihadists to Mali from across region, including Polisario-run camps near Tindouf, Algeria.


NATO Civil-Military Fusion Centre/CFC, and CNA Strategic Studies/Center for Naval Analyses (Washington, DC, Jan. 14, 2013) – As France’s military intervention puts Mali in the international spotlight, two new studies are offering important context and background on the worsening situation in Africa’s Sahel. They report that the expanding presence of al-Qaeda in northern Africa, fueled by the crisis in Mali and Libyan arms influx, is creating an ‘Arc of Instability ’ across Africa that poses an “acute threat” to countries in the region and to Europe and the US.

The studies — by NATO Allied Command’s Civil-Military Fusion Centre, ‘Al Qaeda and the African Arc of Instability,’ and CNA Strategic Studies, ‘Security Challenges in Libya and the Sahel‘ — both cite or link to evidence of al-Qaeda ties to other militants and groups in the region, including members from the Polisario-run refugee camps near Tindouf, Algeria.

Powder keg in Mali and al-Qaeda’s new center of gravity  
The CNA Strategic Studies report says “the situation in Mali remains a veritable powder keg.” Regionally, the Mali crisis and flood of arms from Libya has fed the formation of “a network of jihadists from Africa to Asia,” and relocation of Al-Qaeda’s “center of gravity” to North Africa, extending an “Arc of Instability” across the region.

Locally, the study warns that “infiltration by AQIM and the political destabilization of the country pose an acute threat to Mali’s neighbors.” In particular, it warns “there is evidence that AQIM has infiltrated the Sahrawi refugee camps in Tindouf, Algeria, as well as indications that Sahrawi from the camps have joined terrorist groups based in Mali.” This poses “immediate concerns for the security of Western Sahara, Mauritania, Morocco, and Algeria.”

The CNA study says the security threat extends beyond the Sahel/North Africa neighborhood.  “As the Islamist militants have established their control of the north, fighters from other countries have poured into the area to join the conflict.” The al-Qaeda-linked Islamist groups Ansar Dine and Movement for Tawhid and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) have likewise allowed the “transnational terrorist organization a base of operation in Mali’s north from which to launch attacks against Western targets.”

Creating a transnational terrorist-trafficking network
The NATO CFC study builds on an earlier CFC study and warns that northern Mali has become “the largest al Qaeda stronghold since the fall of Afghanistan in 2001,” transforming the Sahel “from a rear logistical base to the locus of jihadist activity in North and West Africa.” The study acknowledges efforts by the international community to raise a regional military response to reverse the terrorist takeover in northern Mali, but adds that “al Qaeda fighters will probably solidify their gains in northern Mali in the months that it will take the international community to train and equip the African force.”

The CFC study says “Jihadists and other militants thrive in power vacuums, especially in areas where there are large numbers of accessible weapons, such as in Libya, Mali and Syria. In North Africa, militant Muslims and Islamists have taken advantage of recent upheavals thereby thriving and growing in influence, creating what is now being referred to as an ‘Arc of Instability‘ that stretches from the coast of West Africa across the Sahel region into the Horn of Africa.”

The CFC study says “On the African continent, ties between radical groups Boko Haram, al Shabaab, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and its offshoots — the Unity Movement for Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) and Ansar Dine — are becoming stronger; as are ties with al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen.” The CFC study also links to a report by the International Center for Terrorism Studies which cites AQIM ties to “terrorist-trafficking networks in the Sahel that include members of the Polisario Front,” whose camps near Tindouf, Algeria are becoming “a recruiting ground for terrorists, traffickers, and other criminal enterprises.”

NATO CFC/CNA Strategic Studies: "The situation in Mali remains a veritable powder keg," in what has become “the largest al Qaeda stronghold since the fall of Afghanistan in 2001."

“The situation in Mali remains a veritable powder keg” and northern Mali has become the “the largest al-Qaeda stronghold since the fall of Afghanistan in 2001.” NATO CFC/CNA Strategic Studies

Kidnapping, trafficking and recruiting at alarming rates
Both studies call attention to AQIM’s prodigious fund-raising abilities.  The terrorist group’s “alliances with drug traffickers and other criminal syndicates,” including partnerships analysts note with Latin American cocaine cartels, “have allowed AQIM to expand their activities and improve their military capabilities,” says the CFC study, which also cites AQIM’s lucrative practice of kidnappings for ransom that has become “a multi-million dollar industry.” The CNA study adds “the importance of ransom kidnapping as a contributor to AQIM’s rise in Mali cannot be overstated.”

The CFC study points to MUJAO’s active recruiting efforts, noting that “hundreds of young recruits had arrived from Algeria, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Mauritania, Nigeria, Senegal and Somalia, and that many more were expected.”  It reports Morocco’s recent dismantling of a cell that recruited young jihadists “and sent them through Algeria into northern Mali where they joined AQIM or MUJAO.”

Development must be part of the solution
“If resolving the immediate security crisis in Mali is the primary concern,” says the CNA study, then “repairing the central government in Bamako and preventing the spillover of terrorist and militants into the politically and economically vulnerable neighboring countries is the obvious secondary concern. This cannot be achieved by quashing the militants alone, but by creating the social and economic opportunities that can attract the fighters and those sympathetic to their cause to give up their weapons.” The study says “Mali was the first to succumb to these forces, but more countries could follow.”  Achieving long-term stability requires “a developmental aid effort in which the US could take the lead… such an effort has lacked the requisite political will and interest-until now.”

The CFC study concludes citing António Guterres, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, who wrote in the New York Times that the fact a “crisis of this nature has taken root so rapidly in what appeared to be a stable democracy has significant implications extending far beyond Mali’s borders [...] If unchecked, the Mali crisis threatens to create an arc of instability extending west into Mauritania and east through Niger, Chad and Sudan to the Horn of Africa and the Gulf of Aden, characterized by extended spaces where state authority is weak and pockets of territorial control are exercised by transnational criminals.”

For more on each study, go to:

* NATO Allied Command Civil-Military Fusion Centre, “Al Qaeda and the African Arc of Instability,” December 2012

* CNA Strategic Studies, “Security Challenges in Libya and the Sahel,” December 2012


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