Recent photograph of Abderrahmane Youssoufi in Marrakech wearing the official DOD Secretarial hat sent to him by Secretary Cohen

Ambassador Edward M. Gabriel (ret.)
May 29, 2020

Today, one of Morocco’s greatest patriots, Abderrahmane Youssoufi, passed away in Morocco. As a young man, he fought for Morocco’s independence, then joined the opposition in fighting for a democratic and modern country. His final contribution was as its Prime Minister, ushering in the new Morocco and its historic transition to democracy, under two enlightened and enabling Kings, Hassan II and Mohammed VI.

I arrived in Morocco as the new US Ambassador a month before the new government took office, in January 1998. This would be the first government that came to power through free and fair elections, designating that the opposition socialist party, the USFP, which had won the largest number of votes, would now form a government.

Within weeks, I was invited to a private and closely held meeting, late at night in Casablanca, with Ahmed Lahlimi, Youssoufi’s closest adviser and friend. He wanted to assure the United States that, although the USFP was characterized as “socialist,” it had much in common with the US and wanted to work in close collaboration with it. This started a relationship which can be considered as the golden era in US-Morocco relations, and was characterized by a strong and enduring tripartite relationship among the government, the King, and the US.

Within months of its formation, the US Mission in Morocco had met with most of the 41 ministers of the Youssoufi government, 19 of whom had studied in the US as exchange or Fulbright scholars, to design a joint and mutually beneficial US-Morocco strategy with a goal of “building a prosperous, democratic and stable Morocco.”

King Hassan would bless the close effort between the Youssoufi government and the US, and would meet with me, as US Ambassador, more than twenty times over the next 18 months, as well as with several high level delegations from Washington, prior to his death. A year into the Youssoufi government tenure, in February 1999, during an intimate conversation, King Hassan candidly said to me, “At this time in our history, it is important to choose virtue over efficiency,” citing the fact that although an appointed technocratic government may have been more efficient in meeting Morocco’s vision, the time had come when it was more important to open the door to elections, democracy, and reform, which, in hindsight, showed his unbelievable foresight of the world to come.

King Mohammed VI would not only embrace his relationship with Youssoufi, but would accelerate the effort begun under King Hassan and encourage US-Moroccan cooperation, while expanding programs with civil society, and enhancing business development, transparency, and good governance.

During this time, USAID would partner with Morocco by providing new funding to address the most vulnerable in society through a number of socio-economic and educational initiatives. I remember one memorable trip to Figuig with King Mohammed and Youssoufi’s ministers to celebrate our partnership. As we lunched together in a tent in the desert, the King described an even greater vision to address the poor and disenfranchised, which would later become the National Human Development Initiative (INDH). He also discussed how tourism would open up economic opportunities for people living in far flung regions beyond the Atlas Mountains, an effort which has come to fruition.

During the Youssoufi years, King Hassan decided, in collaboration with the US, that a proposed referendum on the Sahara should be abandoned. The USFP party was always against a referendum and immediately gained political support for a new alternative. King Hassan would express days before his death that a new political solution, in line with the US proposal for a solution based on autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty, would be pursued.  On September 1, 1999, King Mohammed would declare to the US in his first official meeting as King, with US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, that he would endorse a sovereignty/autonomy initiative which included US guarantees to protect its sovereignty.

During these years, then Secretary of Defense, Bill Cohen, would visit Morocco twice. The first visit in 1998 opened the door for a closer bilateral military relationship, and discussed the importance of European and North African security supported by NATO. This would lead to official NATO visits to Morocco and eventually lead to Morocco gaining “Major non-NATO Ally” status in 2004.

It was during this first visit that PM Youssoufi told Secretary Cohen a most endearing story of why he quit wearing the traditional djellaba and tarbouche (hat). He said during WWII when US troops were in Morocco he was riding his bike and a US jeep pulled alongside him and a US soldier pulled off his tarbouche. Since he couldn’t afford a new hat, he had to quit wearing the djellaba as well and began dressing in western-style clothes. He told Cohen that the US owed him a new hat. Months later Secretary Cohen sent an official DOD Secretarial hat, which the PM wore until recent days before his death (see photo above). During the second visit of Secretary Cohen, in February 2000, a new strategic defense initiative was announced, the Defense Consultative Council, which has endured to this day as an important regional dialogue concerning security issues in North Africa.

The Youssoufi Government also received then Undersecretary of State Stu Eizenstat and announced the US-North Africa Economic Partnership to enhance the bilateral relationship between the US and the three member countries of North Africa. It was designed to break down the barriers to intra-regional trade and maximize the region’s growth potential. And although Algeria would not cooperate in this effort, US-Morocco trade would more than triple during the Youssoufi years.

Months later, Undersecretary Eizenstat would work on forgiving international debt for Morocco as a sign of support for the Youssoufi government. Soon thereafter, Assistant Secretary of State Ned Walker would visit Morocco and announce a new strategic dialogue process with the government, elevating the bilateral relationship as the most important in the region.

In July 1999, President Clinton would fly to Morocco for the funeral of King Hassan to pay tribute to a great leader and close friend of the US. He was one of more than 50 heads of state who had come to honor King Hassan, and was the first US president since Eisenhower to visit Morocco.

The President met with PM Youssoufi during this trip as well. In their one-hour meeting, President Clinton pledged the solid support of the United States during what he described as a very difficult time for Morocco, and ended the meeting by saying, “You represent hope not only in Morocco but throughout the Arab world for democratization and respect for human rights… I greatly admire what you have done throughout your life, your courage and your commitment to the causes of social justice and human rights.”

May this huge figure in Moroccan history, the greatest among Moroccan patriots, who was loyal to his country and his own values, be memorialized as one of the most important figures in Morocco’s long storied history.

SECURITY COUNCIL EXTENDS MANDATE OF UNITED NATIONS MISSION IN WESTERN SAHARA, ADOPTING RESOLUTION 2494 – October 31, 2019 UN PHOTO

Ambassador Edward M. Gabriel (ret.)
May 28, 2020

It is estimated that the gross world product (GWP) will decline over 6% in 2020 from 2019, reducing growth by trillions of dollars, mainly due to the pandemic. This is going to have a devastating effect on countries with weak economies and low incomes, as well as those wholly dependent on oil revenue, two key categories which define Morocco on the one hand and Algeria on the other.

An unusual number of countries will face defaulting economies, and the pressure on the IMF and World Bank may be more than the resources they have to commit to countries that are struggling to crawl out of one of the worst depressions in modern history. At the same time, Gulf countries will now be in a weaker position to address the need for aid requested by their traditional Arab allies due to low oil prices.

This will put additional pressure on Morocco and Algeria and the North African region which already suffers from one of the lowest intra-regional trading blocks in the world due in large part to the Moroccan-Algerian differences regarding the Western Sahara dispute.

No one knows what the world will look like in a couple of years. The relationship among countries will surely be altered, with stronger nations coming out of the pandemic able to turn the new normal to their advantage, while others will be faced with a longer term recovery as a result of weak governance, defaulting economies, and in some cases, a continued preference to hold on to the grievances of their past rather than meet the challenges of moving forward.

It is incumbent upon Algeria and Morocco to understand the new normal in light of what their relationship can be, not what is has been. They could imagine a new relationship where they’ve resolved their differences concerning the Sahara and moved forward in a regional economic strategy with Tunisia and perhaps other African countries. Or, they could continue to litigate Cold War relics of the past, further draining their resources in an endless arms race, falling further behind countries that were smart enough to look forward, instead of backwards.

The US and France, and other friendly allies, can make a difference in moving these two countries towards a more mutually beneficial relationship. For the US that means no new initiatives until the next administration, regardless of who wins the presidency, since nothing usually happens in the remaining months of a presidential term.  The most successful policy changes usually occur in the beginning years of a new administration, which gives Algeria, Morocco, the US, and France time to contemplate a future policy on the Sahara and North Africa, for consideration in 2021.

Let’s look at the history of this dispute and the possibility of a new approach that could turn an awful pandemic into a winning formula for both countries. In 2000, the UN Secretary General’s Personal Envoy James Baker declared that the original intent of the UN effort – to conduct a referendum of the people of the Sahara regarding whether they would vote for total independence or full integration with Morocco – was impossible, due to the fact that neither side could come to an agreement on who was eligible to vote. Further, a winner take all solution would leave the dissenting population disgruntled and disenfranchised, and be a cause for instability.

Instead, Baker decided on a win-win alternative, calling for a compromise solution that would grant autonomy for the people of the Sahara under Moroccan sovereignty, and offered it to the parties in 2001.  Morocco agreed to the proposal. Algeria and the rebel faction fighting for independence, the Polisario, rejected it.  It should be noted that the US encouraged this initiative in discussions with Morocco and Baker beginning in 1999.

The UN debated this issue for the next six years, until April 2007, when Morocco offered the UN Security Council its own initiative of autonomy under their sovereignty. The Council immediately called it credible and serious. In 2009, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reiterated the US position of supporting an autonomy/sovereignty solution and added that the Moroccan proposal was realistic as well as credible and serious. Unfortunately, since then, nothing much has happened, and worse, today the UN Secretary General has not appointed a new Personal Envoy to replace the outgoing envoy for nearly a year.

It is perhaps in the worst of times that contentious issues become ripe for resolution. This may be one of those moments for the Sahara.

The US should work with France to endorse the autonomy initiative as the best (or only) alternative to resolving this issue and then encourage the UNSC to follow suit. It should call on the parties to negotiate in good faith within an autonomy/sovereignty framework, under the auspices of the UN Personal Envoy, within a specific timeline.

It is assumed that Morocco would accept such a proposal, as they would be otherwise viewed as insincere in wanting to solve the problem, greatly affecting their international standing in the world. One might ask why Algeria/Polisario would accept such a proposal, given the fact that they have stuck to a winner take all independence solution? If Algeria refuses, Morocco can simply “pocket” the offer and declare victory, citing international support for its sovereignty, something Algeria will want to resist at any cost. Algeria will therefore have no choice but to come to the negotiating table, if only to make sure Morocco negotiates in good faith, and to ensure the Personal Envoy calls out Morocco if it doesn’t.

To sweeten the economic pot, preconditioned on Moroccan-Algerian/Polisario goodwill negotiations, the US, France and other friendly countries could offer an aid and economic package that encourages regional economic integration, including infrastructure integration initiatives, and special trading status.

A policy announcement by the US and France, and perhaps by UNSC resolution, that puts forward an autonomy/sovereignty framework as the only viable alternative, will increase the chances of a serious negotiation by the parties, and when combined with an economic incentive package while both countries are suffering from the pandemic, Morocco and Algeria could decide the time is ripe to look forward together, rather than backward.

Covid-19 : Morocco’s economic capital under strict compliance with the health emergency Photo: MAP

Jean R. AbiNader
May 26, 2020

Jean R. AbiNader, Moroccan American Center

The impact of COVID-19 has yet to play out in the global economy as supply chains shift, priorities on domestic industries emerge, food security becomes a dominate concern, and the recognition that recovery must focus on more and better jobs in the short and medium term for the local population. In a country like Morocco, this entails more than sustaining the current economy and workforce. Although these are critical immediate measures, the status quo is inadequate as a response for addressing the growing needs for sustainable prosperity with equitable growth and new sources of revenue for individuals and for the state.

Ironically, the limited success of gas and oil exploration is forcing the government and the private sector to retool their assumptions about the future. This has led to a series of initiatives, building on past successes and decisions, that have the potential for remaking what Morocco does best, tourism and agriculture, and leading the way to upgrading and expanding its services and manufacturing sectors. The pandemic has only accelerated this process. As Morocco continues to put in place needed business reforms and social services strategies, it will be poised to achieve balanced and long-term growth that is the purpose of the Sustainable Development Goals campaign.

The first step is to recover current capacity. The government is already moving ahead with plans to enable businesses to reopen. As recently announced, a program is being put in place to help companies to develop plans for reopening safely and securely.  It covers six main functions: Preparing crisis management and relaunch plans, managing liquidities and finances, training human resources, securing and developing sales, optimizing production and the supply chain, and digitizing the company.

In parallel, the Economic Monitoring Committee (CVE) has put in place a loan guarantee program financed by the state to ease financing access for public and private companies. The plan will allow businesses to apply for loans to finance operations with a maximum interest rate of 4%. The repayment of the loans can be spread over a period of seven years, with a grace period of two years. The program is targeted on ensuring rapid economic recovery after restrictions are lifted by encouraging business growth leading to jobs, meeting payment deadlines, and maintaining relations with suppliers and customers.

As importantly, the CVE has created a new mechanism to accelerate the payment of the debts of public institutions’ debts to micro-sized businesses. A new plan calls for public agencies to prepare lists of payable accounts which will then become eligible for special loans dedicated exclusively to the debt payments and guaranteed by the state. When approved, funds will go directly to the businesses rather than through the agencies in order to reduce payment delays. As the government and private sector reestablish strong foundations to move ahead by the end of 2020, the country can then begin to build on its new-found capacities to diversify and strengthen its economic model.

Among the many medical capabilities that Morocco has developed, which are now exportable around the world and would benefit its African partners in particular, are the manufacture of PPEs ranging from masks and gowns to shields and sanitizing products, medical devices including infrared thermometers and ventilators, and expanding applications of digital technology to information sharing, data collection and analysis, and tracking.

According to Mohamed Faical Nebri, at Morocco’s Digital Development Agency, “Morocco has embarked on a major digital transformation agenda that has been accelerated by COVID-19, particularly at the level of public administration, where the main challenge has been twofold: on the one hand ensuring the continuity of public services, and, on the other, ensuring remote work for public sector employees and civil servants during lockdown.” These experiences enhance the country’s capabilities to integrate digital applications throughout the government and the private sector to improve efficiencies and reduce costs.

Since close to 60% of Morocco’s workforce is in the informal sector, the CVE set up a digital database on which people without a social security number are able to register for economic support. Using their national ID cards, some 2.4 million workers will receive a text message authorizing them to withdraw a lump sum, calculated according to the size of their household, at one of 10,000 banks and ATMs across the country. Going forward, it has been speculated that this initiative could be leveraged to incorporate more informal workers into the formal economy.

In his interview with the Oxford Business Group, Nebri said, ““Today the momentum has been unleashed but there is still work to be done to avoid the risk of going back to old habits in the aftermath of the pandemic. Therefore, it is crucial to pursue digital transformation and hedge against a potential slowdown, all the while supporting partners in order to instill a digital culture in Morocco and enhance value added.”

While many believe that Morocco’s tourism infrastructure, from airlines and bookings to services and facilities, will rebound as demand rebuilds, companies and agencies supporting the industry can assure a strong recovery by consolidating and improving communications platforms that accurately update tourism information. Uncertainty is the bane of travelers who will respond positively to easy access to up-to-date information on opportunities in the country. Perhaps some of Morocco’s many digital wizards can multiply the effectiveness of tourism promotion by launching apps that fill gaps in the current info-sphere on tourism.

Not to be overlooked as post-pandemic recovery engines are the agricultural, pharmaceutical, and manufacturing sectors. As I mentioned in a previous blog, Morocco should set its sights on broadening its regional role by looking at opportunities to build supply chains for companies wanting to end their dependence on uncertain suppliers. Amine Laghidi, a well-known specialist in globalization told MAP that Morocco has the potential to become a hub for the transformation of African agricultural and industrial exports after the COVID-19 pandemic releases its global chokehold. He pointed to food security, processing and transportation of agricultural and industrial products, and continuing to collaborate with counterparts throughout West and Central Africa as key priorities post-COVID 19 where Morocco is well positioned to build on its existing strengths and capacities for innovation.

Jean R. AbiNader
May 14, 2020

Jean R. AbiNader, Moroccan American Center

Morocco, with strong leadership from King Mohammed VI, is committed to finding opportunities to restructure and redirect its economy to be better prepared for other potential calamities such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The economy is already facing a downturn due to drought which may result in as much as a 42% decline in 2019-2020 cereal production. However, given advances in the agricultural sector over the past few years, overall agricultural GDP is not expected to decline more that 5%.

In other agricultural news, the FAO designated a Moroccan digital tracking system the best innovative initiative in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) for the protection of farmers and vulnerable groups against COVID-19 contamination. By digitizing the processes of cultivation and harvesting, the innovation facilitates the management of key stages of cultivation. The program benefits all sizes of farms and is one of the results of the 2008 Green Morocco Plan which funded a range of initiatives and programs to make agriculture one of the main growth engines of national economy by stabilizing production and thereby increasing its contribution to GDP growth, job creation, and poverty reduction.

To enable farmers and companies in the agricultural sector to access financing during the pandemic, Credit Agricole has signed a $54 million line of credit with the French Development Agency to enable micro-, small-, and mid-sized companies to secure funding at reduced rates for seeds, equipment, and social services for rural families and marginalized people during the pandemic.

The line of credit is in addition to $1.6 million that is intended to support sustainable agricultural projects that contribute to the deployment of more sustainable and local agriculture including integrated irrigation, energy efficiency, organic farming, agricultural waste treatment, and local farming.

In manufacturing, a number of analysts believe that the global infrastructure of value supply chains may undergo dramatic alterations because of the virus. As the US is experiencing, there is now more consciousness about factors other than costs and speed of delivery that must be taken into account.

With the growing concern for excessive reliance on China’s role in global manufacturing, a great deal of analysis is being given to medium and long term alternatives to reduce vulnerabilities in supply chains in major sectors such as the automobile, textiles, electronics or, more worryingly, the pharmaceutical and health industries. For example, China monopolizes more than 15% of the world export market. When its labor force was constrained by the virus coupled with the dramatic rise in demand for medical and protective equipment, the fragility of the current system became terribly, in some case, obvious.

Other factors calling into question the primacy of global supply chains are the rising wage costs in Asia no longer offset by productivity gains, the growing utilization of robotics and AI in production, resurgent protectionism in the US and Europe, trade and tariff regimes that penalize some categories of imports, and growing concern for the environmental impact on labor and nature due to a lack of monitoring by foreign companies.

While there are several scenarios of options moving forward, Morocco is in a unique position to “up its game” by becoming a regional leader in supply chain production as it has the capacity to expand its industrial base quickly to meet demands in Europe and the US through the kinds of partnerships it already has with automobile and aeronautical manufacturers. This kind of regional relocation will only have an incremental impact on costs balanced against a more reliable and convenient supply chain. This would mean that companies reorganize their production systems and those of their partner suppliers, as Boeing has done in Morocco, to take advantage of the human, material, and energy resources available and accessible in Africa.

As a recent paper pointed out, “In the automotive, textile, and electronic components sectors for example, Morocco could benefit from the repatriation in a Euro-Mediterranean area of ​​part of the productions currently carried out in Asia. This movement could also be accompanied by flows of Asian FDI wishing to retain their European customers by setting up in Morocco.” This is already obvious in the automotive sector which serves as a model for other industries.

Another possible, though currently unlikely, benefit from the pandemic is extending this proposed value chain model across the Maghreb so that Tunisia and Algeria work with Morocco to become hubs of a vital supply chain for Europe and Africa, with some outreach to US markets. All three have well-qualified human resources who need training for industry 4.0 opportunities – use of digital technology, artificial intelligence, agile organizational infrastructure, and supportive government and legal infrastructure. Algeria already has energy links to Tunisia and Morocco to reduce those costs, and all three would greatly benefit from expanding 5G networks and backbones throughout the region.

If Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia can manage the pandemic with some success, they could emerge with new energies to explore opportunities to resurrect the AMU on a practical basis that responds to the basic needs of their citizens for opportunities and dignity. It’s a stretch, but it’s better than the status quo.

Consistent with this concept was a presentation by Economist Abdelghani Youmni who highlighted the potential of public-private partnerships (PPP) and foreign investment in facilitating Morocco’s post-COVID economic recovery. He believes that Morocco can attract global investors using the PPP model which has had great success in the country. Youmni believes that Europe, with its aging population, should consider integrating its businesses with North Africa, building upon the success of existing ties between international companies and Morocco. He noted that “An industrially strong Morocco could be a reliable partner where environmentally responsible European companies could establish joint ventures.” Exactly why a stronger and multifaceted value supply chain reorientation to the Maghreb makes great business sense.

Jean R. AbiNader
April 29, 2020

Jean R. AbiNader, Moroccan American Center

Since the spread of the pandemic to North Africa more than two months ago, there has been speculation among observers that the effects on society, economy, and political life of the countries may be changed in ways both immediate in terms of people’s habits and more long term as governments take measures to contain the virus.

As of April 28

Algeria

In an interesting analogy to how a person’s health status may determine their ability to resist the virus, Sarah Feuer writes that “For Algeria and its 43 million inhabitants, a weak medical infrastructure, a year-long political crisis, and a stalled reorientation of an economy that has been overly dependent on hydrocarbons for decades have all made the North African country particularly vulnerable to repercussions from the virus.” She is not alone in this assessment as the government has been perhaps the slowest to put in place the necessary tools to detect and combat COVID-19. She points out that “The 2019 Global Health Security Index, which measures various health-sector capacities in countries around the world—including preparedness to manage pandemics—ranked Algeria 173rd out of 195 countries and 17th out of 21 Arab states (surpassing only Djibouti, Syria, Yemen, and Somalia).” Not a healthy picture…

Its ally and largest trade partner, China, is doing its part, sending medical supplies, equipment, and professionals, along with the construction of a hospital to treat patients by mid-April. One of the most notable effects of the crisis has been the cessation of its biweekly demonstrations by the Hirak, the movement, opposed to the current government. Now off the streets, protestors have moved online, raising money for food and medical supplies to hard hit areas and pointing out the government’s shortcomings in addressing the pandemic. This has not slowed down the government’s push against their opponents as journalists, activists, and opposition figures continue to be arrested.

With the plunge in demand for gas and oil worldwide, Algeria is especially vulnerable to economic shocks that disrupt its ability to provide subsidies and services. Announced national budget cuts of 30% may only delay the inevitable drain on foreign reserves, forcing the government to seek external assistance which may prove quite onerous if it upsets existing arrangements between big business, military, and government officials.

Morocco

King Mohammed VI has received near unanimous approval for his leadership, yet there are concerns that continued restrictions on the country’s media and activists portend challenges that may signal a more restrictive regime after the pandemic. As an energy importer, Morocco has benefited from low energy prices, but remittances, tourism, transportation, and hospitality services are all suffering as a result of global restrictions and weaknesses in supply chains. Its economy can hardly afford to suffer a prolonged shutdown, and many small businesses have already disappeared. The government has few resources to sustain SMEs and larger companies, and its social and health services networks are strained.

Moroccans have taken up the challenges of social distancing and lack of contact fairly well for the moment, and in some ways, Ramadan has helped although closing mosques and the inconsistent availability of foodstuffs and medicines are generating dissent. With more testing going on and greater outreach into the rural areas, the number of cases may well increase beyond the capacity of the public health system. With the lockdown extended until May 20, right before the Eid holiday, the government is hoping that its early interventions, along with increased testing and treatment protocols, will absorb most of the new cases and take Morocco through any spikes in cases.

As with other countries in the region, the government has released thousands of prisoners from jail to reduce the threat of spreading the virus in confined facilities. Yet, since March 20, authorities have arrested thousands of individuals for violating the state of emergency or for spreading false information. Most of these have resulted in fines rather than incarceration.

Morocco, along with the rest of the world, faces a great deal of economic uncertainty. Official unemployment already tops 700,000 with some 113,000 businesses having closed since March 20. This has severely depleted the state’s safety net despite funds from international donors to support SMEs in this difficult transition. Questions are not only about Morocco’s recovery, but its supply chain and customer links, largely in Europe, which are also under duress with no bright prospects on the horizon.

Tunisia

Like neighboring Morocco, Tunisia mobilized its rich human resources to help in the fight against the pandemic. Engineering and health students and technology innovators are working on a variety of equipment and IT programs to boost the country’s anti-virus capacity. For example, as in Morocco, Tunisians now have locally manufactured ventilators, PPEs, and other critical equipment for protection and treatment. The Pasteur Institute in Tunis has already decoded the local strain of the virus, which is critical to developing a vaccine; and technicians are pushing ahead with applying AI to the identification of early signs of the virus through X-rays.

While the numbers currently are low, reporting is now coming in on the rural and interior areas where the infrastructure and professional staff are limited. The biggest hit, however, is to the economy as tourism, remittances, hospitality, transportation, and services are suffering from lockdowns in Europe and restricted movement across borders. This has forced the government, which is in deficit spending and slow growth for the last five years, to adopt a support package for the poor, SMEs, and various sectors of the economy.

So far, around $155 million in aid is allocated for poor families and the unemployed. Taxes have been postponed on SMEs and repayments on low-income employee loans are being delayed. The IMF is providing a $745 million loan, the EU pledged a grant of $273 million, Italy a $55 million grant, and a loan of $280 million is coming from the Islamic Development Bank.

Politics not as usual

How these countries emerge from the pandemic will shape their economic, social, and political futures with little assurances that the social contracts, which have been strained in the past decade, will survive without key alterations. As Intissar Fakir argues, “As the aftereffects of the Covid-19 pandemic become clearer, they are likely to bring to the fore the policy failures that made the North African nations so fragile and susceptible to the virus in the first place. Economic mismanagement and underinvestment in infrastructure and human development have resulted in systems characterized by inequality and social precariousness. The governments of the three countries might be able to reinvent themselves in the short term, but beyond that the consequences of their errors are potentially destabilizing.”

While Morocco may seem to be the most stable based on its more diverse economic base and the leadership of the king, it has a weak political system, large wealth disparities, too many unfulfilled pledges from the government, and a large youth population in need of jobs. These conditions are true in Tunisia as well except that it lacks a unifying national authority and suffers from a continued dysfunctional political system and faltering economy. Algeria, the most repressive regime, will certainly have to face off with the Hirak once the virus infections have flattened and demonstrators return to the streets. Their demands, like the others, for an open, effective, transparent government and significant efforts to create jobs and diversify the economy may be beyond the scope of the traditional political leadership.

What lies ahead for Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia will very much be determined by the level of trust governments are able to build with their constituents based on how they combat the virus, protect the needy, develop more comprehensive health sectors, and work transparently to promote economic recovery. This is a global phenomenon but especially critical in countries struggling to survive.